# foomflops: Three Decades of AI Predictions

> A sourced timeline of Eliezer Yudkowsky’s AI predictions, their deadlines, and how they resolved.

Canonical URL: https://foom.hyperplex.org/

foomflops follows each prediction from its original source through its deadline and editorial resolution. Primary-source links accompany every entry; consult those sources when quoting or evaluating a claim.

## Featured research

- [The Four Main Claims](https://foom.hyperplex.org/four-claims/index.html.md): Four load-bearing AI takeoff claims, each traced to the latest dated statement that still supports it, later revisions, evidence, and related predictions.
- [No Warning Signs](https://foom.hyperplex.org/no-warning-signs/index.html.md): Yudkowsky’s 2021–23 account predicts apparent alignment on weaker systems, concealed failure as capabilities rise, and a terminal first failure—not repeated warning shots that civilization can correct.

## Chapters

- [Chapter 01: Extropians](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/extropians/index.html.md): When transhumanism met mailing-list accelerationism
- [Chapter 02: SL4 / Plan to Singularity](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/sl4/index.html.md): Shock Level Four and open-source seed AI
- [Chapter 03: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/siai/index.html.md): From 'we will build Friendly AI' to early catastrophic risk warnings
- [Chapter 04: Overcoming Bias / LessWrong / Rationality community](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/overcoming_bias/index.html.md): Debugging humanity, one very long blog post at a time
- [Chapter 05: MIRI: Research](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/miri_research/index.html.md): those who can't build, align
- [Chapter 06: MIRI: Advocacy](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/miri_propaganda/index.html.md): those who can't align, sabotage
- [Chapter 07: When Prophecy Fails](https://foom.hyperplex.org/chapter/when_prophecy_fails/index.html.md): the prophecy recedes; the apparatus grows

## Predictions

- [Singularity by 2025 (or 2005, given funding!)](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/staring/index.html.md): Retracted: 2001; predicted 1996.
- [Seed AI by 2010, to outrace nanotech](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/plan/index.html.md): Falsified: 2010; predicted 1999.
- [Nanotech ~2010; the Singularity ~2020](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/crns/index.html.md): Falsified: 2020; predicted 1999.
- [Neural nets: “certainly Not Sufficient”](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/connectionism/index.html.md): Falsified: 2023; predicted 2000.
- [Hard takeoff in a basement within ten years](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/basement/index.html.md): Falsified: 2011; predicted 2001.
- [“Three hours to transhumanity”](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/cfai/index.html.md): Retracted: 2008; predicted 2001.
- [Time to Singularity: “2005–2020, peak 2008–2010”](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/ets/index.html.md): Falsified: 2020; predicted 2001.
- [SIAI ships transhuman AI ~2008–2010](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/siai/index.html.md): Falsified: 2010; predicted 2001.
- [“Dead certain”: days to nanotech](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/takeoff/index.html.md): Falsified: 2023; predicted 2002.
- [“A planet-sized neural network would fail”](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/planet/index.html.md): Falsified: 2023; predicted 2006.
- [AGI = ten insights, a small team, one desktop](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/foom/index.html.md): Falsified: 2023; predicted 2008.
- [Doom by 2030, at 2:1 odds](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/caplan/index.html.md): Resolves: 2030; predicted 2017.
- [No GDP boom before doom](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/gdp/index.html.md): Falsified: 2025; predicted 2021.
- [AI takes IMO gold by 2025 (≥16%)](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/imo/index.html.md): Confirmed: 2025; predicted 2022.
- [“Dying with dignity”: certain doom, no date](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/doom/index.html.md): Still open; predicted 2022.
- [Self-driving cars: approved only after the world ends](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/selfdriving/index.html.md): Falsified: 2025; predicted 2021.
- [The trillion-scale AI boom: 'pretty darn prohibited'](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/trillionboom/index.html.md): Falsified: 2025; predicted 2021.
- [Deepnets as ubiquitous as computers, maybe by 2035](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/deepnets/index.html.md): Falsified: 2025; predicted 2021.
- [Codex: stagnation for 5 years or a massive leap in 2](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/codexbet/index.html.md): Hedged: 2023; predicted 2021.
- [$1B/yr waifutech before AI freedom-of-the-road](https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/waifubet/index.html.md): Still open; predicted 2021.

## Machine-readable resources

- [LLM guide](https://foom.hyperplex.org/llms.txt): Concise map of the site.
- [Full text export](https://foom.hyperplex.org/llms-full.txt): The claim audits, chapter narratives, and prediction explanations in one file.
- [Prediction dataset](https://foom.hyperplex.org/data/predictions.json): Structured JSON with statuses, dates, explanations, and citations.
- [Four-claims dataset](https://foom.hyperplex.org/data/four-claims.json): Structured claim statements, assessments, updates, and evidence.
- [No-warning-signs dataset](https://foom.hyperplex.org/data/no-warning-signs.json): Structured quotations, readings, and comparison table.