# Doom by 2030, at 2:1 odds

> If humanity survives to 00:00 GMT, Jan 1 2030, Yudkowsky pays Caplan $200; a bet at 2:1 odds in favour of doom.

Canonical URL: https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/caplan

Chapter: MIRI: Research

Category: timelines & doom

Predicted: 2017

Resolution deadline: 2030

Status: still open

Status detail: The prediction is still open and is scheduled to resolve in 2030

Original source label: bet with Bryan Caplan, Jan 2017 (paraphrase of terms)

## Resolution

Resolves January 1, 2030. Humanity currently extant; Caplan currently ahead.

## Context and outcome

The clearest deadline comes from his bet with Bryan Caplan. Caplan paid him $100 up front; if biological humans are still living on Earth’s surface on New Year’s Day 2030, Yudkowsky must repay $200, adjusted for inflation. The terms amount to two-to-one odds on catastrophe before then.

Among his recent predictions of AI doom, this is the only one tied to a specific date. That also makes it the easiest to judge.

## Supporting receipts

> Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.

Context: The headline terms of the 2017 bet, drafted by Yudkowsky and posted by Caplan on EconLog.

Source: [Bryan Caplan, EconLog (Jan 2017)](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2017/01/my_end-of-the-w.html)

> If there are still biological humans running around on the surface of the Earth, it will not have been said to be ended.

Context: The bet's resolution criterion for whether the world counts as ended.

Source: [Bryan Caplan, EconLog (Jan 2017)](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2017/01/my_end-of-the-w.html)

> In my mind, this is primarily a bet that annualized real interest rates stay below 5.5%. After all, at 5.5%, I could turn $100 today in $200 inflation-adjusted without betting.

Context: Caplan noting the structure meant he profited unless real rates spiked or the world ended.

Source: [Bryan Caplan, EconLog (Jan 2017)](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2017/01/my_end-of-the-w.html)

## Sources

- [Caplan, EconLog (2017)](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2017/01/my_end-of-the-w.html)