# “Three hours to transhumanity”

> …the ‘hard takeoff’ ‘seed AI’ three-hours-to-transhumanity scenario.

Canonical URL: https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/cfai

Chapter: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

Category: takeoff mechanics

Predicted: 2001

Resolution date: 2008

Status: walked back

Status detail: The prediction was resolved as walked back in 2008

Original source label: Creating Friendly AI, 2001

## Resolution

Covered by his blanket disavowal of pre-2003 work, and by the 2008 sequence calling young Eliezer wrong.

## Context and outcome

CFAI treated ultrarapid takeoff as the most likely outcome. On this account, a single seed AI would reach superintelligence and develop nanotechnology along something close to the minimum possible timeline, culminating in a “Sysop” with control over all matter within human reach.

Yudkowsky later abandoned this picture in his blanket disavowal of his pre-2003 work and in the “Coming of Age” sequence. No three-hour anything has occurred.

## Supporting receipts

> I visualize an extremely powerful AI produced by an ultrarapid takeoff, not just because it's the conservative assumption or the highest-stakes outcome, but because I think it's actually the most likely scenario.

Context: Section 2.3 states the ultrarapid takeoff is CFAI's default because it is judged most likely.

Source: [Creating Friendly AI 1.0 (2001)](https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf)

> Under this scenario, the first self-modifying transhuman AI will have, at least in potential, nearly absolute physical power over our world. The potential existence of this absolute power is unavoidable…

Context: The predicted position of the first transhuman AI under the default takeoff scenario.

Source: [Creating Friendly AI 1.0 (2001)](https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf)

> Even if you don't believe in the "hard takeoff" "seed AI" three-hours-to-transhumanity scenario… if I'm right about how these things work, the first Friendly AI you build becomes Transition Guide and builds a Sysop…

Context: Doubters of the three-hour takeoff are waved off; the Sysop is CFAI's superintelligent operating system for all matter in human space.

Source: [Creating Friendly AI 1.0 (2001)](https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf)

## Sources

- [CFAI (PDF)](https://intelligence.org/files/CFAI.pdf)