# Nanotech ~2010; the Singularity ~2020

> The 50% point [for nanotech] may be 2010, or earlier. … AI at 2020 CRNS.

Canonical URL: https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/crns

Chapter: SL4 / Plan to Singularity

Category: timelines & doom

Predicted: 1999

Resolution date: 2020

Status: falsified by events

Status detail: The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2020

Original source label: The Plan to Singularity, CRNS Time, 1999–2000

## Resolution

His “best guesses” supplied both sides of the race. 2020 passed without either Drexlerian nanotech or the Singularity.

## Context and outcome

In the CRNS appendix to The Plan, Yudkowsky offered forecasts for what might happen without intervention. He placed the 50% point for nanotechnology at 2010 or earlier and predicted AI, meaning the full Singularity, by 2020. He described both dates explicitly as his “best guesses.”

## Supporting receipts

> In recent times, I've moved up my CRNS estimate on nanotechnology … it now seems that the 50% point may be 2010, or earlier. … Some other key CRNS numbers include AI at 2020 CRNS.

Context: The Plan's separate current-rate forecasts for nanotechnology and AI, rather than its intervention target.

Source: [The Plan to Singularity, CRNS Time (1999–2000)](https://web.archive.org/web/20100727182235/http://yudkowsky.net/obsolete/plan.html#nav_crns)

> Those are just my numbers - best guesses.

Context: Yudkowsky's own label for the CRNS dates in the appendix.

Source: [The Plan to Singularity, CRNS Time (1999–2000)](https://web.archive.org/web/20100727182235/http://yudkowsky.net/obsolete/plan.html#nav_crns)

## Sources

- [The Plan to Singularity: CRNS Time](https://web.archive.org/web/20100727182235/http://yudkowsky.net/obsolete/plan.html#nav_crns)