# $1B/yr waifutech before AI freedom-of-the-road

> I think my sheer impression would be that we'll get $1B/yr waifutech before we get AI freedom-of-the-road

Canonical URL: https://foom.hyperplex.org/p/waifubet

Chapter: MIRI: Research

Category: economics & deployment

Predicted: 2021

Resolution deadline: No date supplied

Status: still open

Status detail: The prediction is still open; no resolution deadline was supplied

Original source label: takeoff debate with Paul Christiano, Nov 2021

## Resolution

Neither leg crossed yet; robotaxis are arguably ahead, the opposite of the sheer impression. Still open.

## Context and outcome

Yudkowsky’s impression was that “waifutech” would reach $1 billion a year before self-driving cars achieved “freedom of the road.” Christiano pressed him to define the automotive side in terms of revenue from services like Waymo, although the two never settled on precise terms.

As of mid-2026, neither prediction had clearly come true. Waymo’s annualized revenue had risen above $350 million, while reported revenues for companion and character-based AI products remained scattered and difficult to compare. Autonomous driving appears to be ahead in actual commercial deployment, but the original comparison is too loosely defined for a clean verdict. With no deadline attached, it remains open.

## Supporting receipts

> I'd be pretty surprised if this surpassed $1B/year of revenue before self-driving cars passed $10B/year of revenue.

Context: Christiano's counter-prediction in the same exchange is the leg currently ahead.

Source: [Christiano, same thread](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH/yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds)

## Sources

- [Takeoff Speeds debate (2021)](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vwLxd6hhFvPbvKmBH/yudkowsky-and-christiano-discuss-takeoff-speeds)