Prediction · timelines & doom
Hard takeoff in a basement within ten years
Predicted in 2001 from SL4, Jan 2001
“…a hard takeoff occurs in SIAI's or Webmind's basement sometime in the next ten years or so.”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2011.
Webmind went bankrupt within months.
The decade closed with no takeoff from anyone's basement.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2001
- Resolution date
- 2011
- Chapter
- Chapter 03: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
Yudkowsky claimed that genetic engineering and brain-computer interfaces wouldn't matter because they'd arrive around 2020, and a basement hard takeoff would beat them by a decade.
Webmind Inc. collapsed in 2001, SIAI never built its seed AI, and nothing resembling a takeoff occurred by 2011 or 2020.
Supporting receipts
“What actually happens is that genetic engineering and neurohacking … don't show up, because they'd show up in 2020, and a hard takeoff occurs in SIAI's or Webmind's basement sometime in the next ten years or so.”
Arguing human-enhancement tech never arrives because a basement hard takeoff beats it by a decade.
“There still comes a point when the SI says that the Introdus wavefront is on the way, and you sit there waiting for the totally unknowable future to hit you in the next five seconds.”
Same message, describing the final moments after the basement takeoff.