Prediction · takeoff mechanics
“Three hours to transhumanity”
Predicted in 2001 from Creating Friendly AI, 2001
“…the ‘hard takeoff’ ‘seed AI’ three-hours-to-transhumanity scenario.”
Resolution
walked back. The prediction was resolved as walked back in 2008.
Covered by his blanket disavowal of pre-2003 work,
and by the 2008 sequence calling young Eliezer wrong.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2001
- Resolution date
- 2008
- Chapter
- Chapter 03: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Verdict
- walked back
Context and outcome
CFAI treated ultrarapid takeoff as the most likely outcome. On this account, a single seed AI would reach superintelligence and develop nanotechnology along something close to the minimum possible timeline, culminating in a “Sysop” with control over all matter within human reach.
Yudkowsky later abandoned this picture in his blanket disavowal of his pre-2003 work and in the “Coming of Age” sequence. No three-hour anything has occurred.
Supporting receipts
“I visualize an extremely powerful AI produced by an ultrarapid takeoff, not just because it's the conservative assumption or the highest-stakes outcome, but because I think it's actually the most likely scenario.”
Section 2.3 states the ultrarapid takeoff is CFAI's default because it is judged most likely.
“Under this scenario, the first self-modifying transhuman AI will have, at least in potential, nearly absolute physical power over our world. The potential existence of this absolute power is unavoidable…”
The predicted position of the first transhuman AI under the default takeoff scenario.
“Even if you don't believe in the "hard takeoff" "seed AI" three-hours-to-transhumanity scenario… if I'm right about how these things work, the first Friendly AI you build becomes Transition Guide and builds a Sysop…”
Doubters of the three-hour takeoff are waved off; the Sysop is CFAI's superintelligent operating system for all matter in human space.