Prediction · timelines & doom
Doom by 2030, at 2:1 odds
Predicted in 2017 from bet with Bryan Caplan, Jan 2017 (paraphrase of terms)
“If humanity survives to 00:00 GMT, Jan 1 2030, Yudkowsky pays Caplan $200; a bet at 2:1 odds in favour of doom.”
Resolution
still open. The prediction is still open and is scheduled to resolve in 2030.
Resolves January 1, 2030.
Humanity currently extant; Caplan currently ahead.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2017
- Resolution deadline
- 2030
- Chapter
- Chapter 05: MIRI: Research
- Verdict
- still open
Context and outcome
The clearest deadline comes from his bet with Bryan Caplan. Caplan paid him $100 up front; if biological humans are still living on Earth’s surface on New Year’s Day 2030, Yudkowsky must repay $200, adjusted for inflation. The terms amount to two-to-one odds on catastrophe before then.
Among his recent predictions of AI doom, this is the only one tied to a specific date. That also makes it the easiest to judge.
Supporting receipts
“Bryan Caplan pays Eliezer $100 now, in exchange for $200 CPI-adjusted from Eliezer if the world has not been ended by nonaligned AI before 12:00am GMT on January 1st, 2030.”
The headline terms of the 2017 bet, drafted by Yudkowsky and posted by Caplan on EconLog.
“If there are still biological humans running around on the surface of the Earth, it will not have been said to be ended.”
The bet's resolution criterion for whether the world counts as ended.
“In my mind, this is primarily a bet that annualized real interest rates stay below 5.5%. After all, at 5.5%, I could turn $100 today in $200 inflation-adjusted without betting.”
Caplan noting the structure meant he profited unless real rates spiked or the world ended.