Chapter 05 · 2013–2021
MIRI: Research
those who can't build, align
Overview
After the early implementation timelines failed, MIRI turned toward decision theory, logical uncertainty, agent foundations, and alignment. The Institute increasingly treated the lack of any known safe path to advanced AI as its central problem.
Meanwhile, deep learning complicated the picture. Progress came through larger models, more data, better chips, and large research organizations, rather than through the small number of decisive architectural breakthroughs the foom model had anticipated. AlphaGo raised serious doubts about that picture; GPT-3 did far more damage.
Predictions in this chapter
Doom by 2030, at 2:1 odds
2017 → 2030; still open.
No GDP boom before doom
2021 → 2025; falsified by events.
Self-driving cars: approved only after the world ends
2021 → 2025; falsified by events.
The trillion-scale AI boom: 'pretty darn prohibited'
2021 → 2025; falsified by events.
Deepnets as ubiquitous as computers, maybe by 2035
2021 → 2025; falsified by events.
Codex: stagnation for 5 years or a massive leap in 2
2021 → 2023; hedged: couldn't lose.
$1B/yr waifutech before AI freedom-of-the-road
2021 → open; still open.