Prediction · timelines & doom
Nanotech ~2010; the Singularity ~2020
Predicted in 1999 from The Plan to Singularity, CRNS Time, 1999–2000
“The 50% point [for nanotech] may be 2010, or earlier. … AI at 2020 CRNS.”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2020.
His “best guesses” supplied both sides of the race.
2020 passed without either Drexlerian nanotech or the Singularity.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 1999
- Resolution date
- 2020
- Chapter
- Chapter 02: SL4 / Plan to Singularity
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
In the CRNS appendix to The Plan, Yudkowsky offered forecasts for what might happen without intervention. He placed the 50% point for nanotechnology at 2010 or earlier and predicted AI, meaning the full Singularity, by 2020. He described both dates explicitly as his “best guesses.”
Supporting receipts
“In recent times, I've moved up my CRNS estimate on nanotechnology … it now seems that the 50% point may be 2010, or earlier. … Some other key CRNS numbers include AI at 2020 CRNS.”
The Plan's separate current-rate forecasts for nanotechnology and AI, rather than its intervention target.
“Those are just my numbers - best guesses.”
Yudkowsky's own label for the CRNS dates in the appendix.