Prediction · timelines & doom
Seed AI by 2010, to outrace nanotech
Predicted in 1999 from The Plan to Singularity, 1999–2000
“To have a good chance of outracing nanotech, we should plan to develop a seed AI by 2010.”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2010.
2010 came. No seed AI, no nanotech, no race.
He'd already called the plan a folly in 2008.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 1999
- Resolution date
- 2010
- Chapter
- Chapter 02: SL4 / Plan to Singularity
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
The Plan treated Drexlerian nanotechnology as a doomsday deadline. If it arrived around 2010, a seed AI would need to be developed first; ideally by 2005, and no later than 2010. He advertised the prediction with a T-shirt reading “Singularity 2005.”
In the 2008 “Coming of Age” sequence he framed the whole plan as The Sheer Folly Of Callow Youth. Then 2010 passed without seed AI or Drexlerian nanotechnology.
Supporting receipts
“To win, we need to create an AI. To avoid losing, we need to outrace nanotechnology. … To have a good chance of outracing nanotech, we should plan to develop a seed AI by 2010.”
The plan's core framing of AI as a race against nanotechnology, with a 2010 seed-AI deadline.
“I'll be overjoyed if we have 'till 2020 to create a seed AI, but it's increasingly looking like the deadline may be more on the order of 2005. That's not impossible, but it's damned tenuous.”
From the 'If nanotech comes first' section, moving the deadline earlier to roughly 2005.
“I would not realistically expect a substantial user base before four years have passed, making my "Singularity 2005" T-Shirt a touch unrealistic... but we can always hope.”
Schedule slippage measured against his own 'Singularity 2005' T-shirt; the ellipsis is in the original.