Prediction · economics & deployment
Deepnets as ubiquitous as computers, maybe by 2035
Predicted in 2021 from takeoff debate with Paul Christiano, Nov 2021
“if the world lasts until 2035, I could perhaps see deepnets becoming as ubiquitous as computers were in… 1995? 2005? would that fulfill the terms of the Prophecy?”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2025.
Computers-in-2005 ubiquity arrived by 2025,
a decade ahead of his 'perhaps'.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2021
- Resolution date
- 2025
- Chapter
- Chapter 05: MIRI: Research
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
Yudkowsky suggested that, if the world survived, deep neural networks might by 2035 become as common in everyday life as computers had been in 1995 or 2005.
That level of adoption arrived much earlier. Within two years of its launch, ChatGPT had hundreds of millions of weekly users, and by 2025–26 AI assistants were built into phones, browsers, office software, and development tools. Deep learning had reached something close to 2005-era computer ubiquity roughly a decade ahead of his estimate. Neither “perhaps” nor “if the world lasts” changes the timing.
Supporting receipts
“My model does not forbid that we dwiddle around on the AGI side while gradient descent tech gets its fingers into enough separate weakly-generalizing pies to produce 10% GDP growth, but I'm happy to say that this sounds much more like Paul's Prophecy is coming true.”
The pre-registered concession condition was broad, weakly generalizing deployment producing real growth. Reality took his own out.