Prediction · timelines & doom
SIAI ships transhuman AI ~2008–2010
Predicted in 2001 from singinst.org mission pages, 2001–02
“…reaching transhumanity sometime between 2005 and 2020, probably around 2008 or 2010.”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2010.
No seed AI ever shipped. The org pivoted to alignment
research and renamed itself MIRI in 2013.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2001
- Resolution date
- 2010
- Chapter
- Chapter 03: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
The Institute was founded to build the Singularity. Its early plan centered on funding a recursively self-improving “Singularity seed,” which was expected to bring about a transhuman future sometime around 2008-2010.
Those years came and went. Flare, the programming language meant to support the project, was abandoned, and the organization gradually turned away from building the AI itself toward theoretical work on alignment and became MIRI.
Supporting receipts
“The Singularity Institute is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit devoted solely to creating the Singularity. … our long-term mission is direct research into Singularity technologies and the direct implementation of the Singularity.”
SIAI's 2002 homepage stating its mission as the direct implementation of the Singularity.
“Our best guess for the timescale is that our final-stage AI will reach transhumanity sometime between 2005 and 2020, probably around 2008 or 2010.”
The institute's official timescale estimate for its AI reaching transhumanity, contingent on funding.
An Introduction to the Singularity, singinst.org (2001 page, archived 2002)
“There are concepts in Flare that have never been seen before. We expect to be able to solve problems in Flare that cannot realistically be solved in any other language.”
The goals page for Flare, SIAI's custom XML-based programming language commissioned for building the seed AI.
Flare language goals, flarelang.sourceforge.net (2003 archive)