Prediction · timelines & doom
Time to Singularity: “2005–2020, peak 2008–2010”
Predicted in 2001 from SL4 ETS poll, Jun 2001; his entire reply
“2005-2020 / peak at 2008-2010”
Resolution
falsified by events. The prediction was resolved as falsified by events in 2020.
The window closed in full on January 1, 2021.
No Singularity was observed at the peak or elsewhere.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2001
- Resolution date
- 2020
- Chapter
- Chapter 03: Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
- Verdict
- falsified by events
Context and outcome
Asked on the SL4 mailing list when he expected the Singularity, Yudkowsky gave a range along with its most likely point. A month later, he stressed that the dates were meant as targets rather than expressions of optimism. Real mental effort had gone into making it 2010 instead of 2020 or 2030. Every year in the range has now passed.
Supporting receipts
“2005-2020 peak at 2008-2010”
His complete two-line reply to the SL4 poll on Estimated Time to Singularity.
“People may have first heard us talking about 2010 and thought we were just being overoptimistic, not realizing how much mental effort went into figuring out how to make it "2010" instead of "2020" or "2030".”
Recalling how the Singularity target date was deliberately engineered down to 2010.
“We would very much like to do it in ten years, but if it takes twenty years to do it then we will SPEND twenty years, because this *is* a crusade and the entire planet is at stake.”
Framing SIAI's ten-year timeline as the last great crusade in human history.