Prediction · economics & deployment
$1B/yr waifutech before AI freedom-of-the-road
Predicted in 2021 from takeoff debate with Paul Christiano, Nov 2021
“I think my sheer impression would be that we'll get $1B/yr waifutech before we get AI freedom-of-the-road”
Resolution
still open. The prediction is still open; no resolution deadline was supplied.
Neither leg crossed yet; robotaxis are arguably ahead,
the opposite of the sheer impression. Still open.
Timeline
- Prediction made
- 2021
- Resolution deadline
- No deadline supplied
- Chapter
- Chapter 05: MIRI: Research
- Verdict
- still open
Context and outcome
Yudkowsky’s impression was that “waifutech” would reach $1 billion a year before self-driving cars achieved “freedom of the road.” Christiano pressed him to define the automotive side in terms of revenue from services like Waymo, although the two never settled on precise terms.
As of mid-2026, neither prediction had clearly come true. Waymo’s annualized revenue had risen above $350 million, while reported revenues for companion and character-based AI products remained scattered and difficult to compare. Autonomous driving appears to be ahead in actual commercial deployment, but the original comparison is too loosely defined for a clean verdict. With no deadline attached, it remains open.
Supporting receipts
“I'd be pretty surprised if this surpassed $1B/year of revenue before self-driving cars passed $10B/year of revenue.”
Christiano's counter-prediction in the same exchange is the leg currently ahead.